The past year was a turbulent one for cryptocurrencies, with the collapse of the FTX exchange and global inflation compounding the inherent volatility in the crypto market.
On 21 January 2023, the price of bitcoin exceeded $23,000 for the first time since August, representing a 39% increase since the start of the year. While still significantly less than its all-time high to date of $65,000 reached in November 2021, it does mark a rally, following the market-wide 2022 downturn. Bitcoin ended the year at around $16,000, losing 60% of its value during 2022’s so-called “crypto winter”. So, what will this year bring for bitcoin? Here are three market predictions for 2023.
1. Another year of volatility could be on the way
Price predictions for 2023 range from Standard Chartered’s downbeat forecast that bitcoin will fall to $5,000 during the year to high-profile crypto investor Tim Draper suggesting it could reach $250,000. In the mid-range, Professor Carol Alexander of the University of Sussex predicts it will reach $30,000 during the first half of the year before topping $50,000 by the end of 2023. Each offers sound reasoning for their predictions. For example, Standard Chartered cited the potential for more crypto firm and exchange bankruptcies, which could impact investor confidence. Draper, meanwhile, believes, among other factors, there will be increased uptake of crypto among women, who control 80% of retail spending.
2. The 2024 bitcoin “halving” could have an impact this year
Every four years, the reward for mining bitcoin is halved. The idea of the policy is to mitigate inflation by maintaining a scarcity of bitcoin. In total, there is a maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins, of which around 19 million have already been mined. The last halving was in 2020, so the next one is due in 2024 (the final one is scheduled for 2140). As the halving has the potential to influence demand for and the price of bitcoin, it must be factored in to 2023 market predictions. Previous halvings have had a positive impact on bitcoin’s price, as well as generating momentum leading up to the event.
3. Inflation will be a key factor in the price behaviour of bitcoin
A third factor that should be taken into account when it comes to bitcoin market predictions is the wider global economic forecast. Inflation worldwide started to rise in mid-2021, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting that it would reach 8.8% during 2022 before falling to 6.5% in 2023. Digital currencies are decentralised, meaning they should be unaffected by inflation.
However, the response to inflation by governments and investors could have an impact. For example, increased interest rates often drive investors away from volatile assets to debt-based securities, while general macro-economic uncertainties mean investors seek out stability and security.
Throughout 2023, there will be further positive trends in the cryptocurrency market, such as the continued traction of crypto casinos for free bets sports betting, which will impact bitcoin. However, overall, the wide-ranging forecasts and the factors cited all suggest that bitcoin (and its investors) could be in for another rough ride during the year.
